Senegal vs Iraq Prediction

Group I. Senegal vs Iraq. June 26, 2026 | BMO Field, Toronto | 19:00. FIFA World Cup 2026.

Toronto gets a final Group I match between two teams still searching for their first points, but the pressure sits differently on each side. Senegal lost to France and Norway, yet their 3-2 defeat to the Norwegians showed enough attacking life to suggest they are far from finished competitively. Iraq have also faced a brutal schedule, losing 4-1 to Norway and 3-0 to France, but Graham Arnold’s side have not completely collapsed. Senegal are the stronger team, but the match profile does not automatically point to a blowout. Iraq +2 Asian Handicap at 1.71 looks interesting because the underdog can lose by one and still win the bet, while a two-goal defeat returns the stake.

Senegal

Senegal have had to deal with two of the strongest teams in the group, and the results have been harsh. Against France, Pape Thiaw’s side created chances before fading in the second half. Against Norway, they were more proactive, scored twice and kept the match alive until the final stretch. That performance matters because it showed Senegal still have speed, physicality and attacking belief despite two defeats.

There is enough quality for Senegal to control large parts of this match. Édouard Mendy remains important in goal, Kalidou Koulibaly gives leadership and penalty-box strength, while Idrissa Gueye helps protect central areas and cover spaces after turnovers. Nicolas Jackson brings movement, pressing and direct runs at centre-backs, giving Senegal a clear attacking outlet. The concern is defensive balance. Senegal have already conceded six goals, and when they push forward aggressively, they can leave gaps for opponents to attack on the break. Against Iraq, they should create chances, but chasing a comfortable margin may not be simple.

Iraq

Iraq’s schedule has been unforgiving. Facing Norway’s Haaland-led attack and then France’s Mbappé-led front line is about as difficult as a World Cup group can get. The results were heavy, but Iraq did show resistance in spells. They scored against Norway and kept their structure for periods against France before the superior quality of the favorite took over.

Arnold’s side still have tools to stay competitive. Jalal Hassan will likely face pressure in goal, while Akam Hashim needs to handle Jackson’s movement and defend the box with discipline. In midfield, Amir Al-Ammari and Ali Jasim can help Iraq retain possession in short spells and avoid being pinned back for the full match. Up front, Ali Al-Hamadi and Aymen Hussein give Iraq physical options through direct balls, hold-up play and aerial duels. The main weakness is defensive shifting when opponents switch play quickly, but Senegal’s tempo should be less overwhelming than France or Norway’s, giving Iraq a better chance to stay within the handicap.

Prediction

Senegal are better in terms of pace, squad quality and attacking ceiling, but the spread looks demanding. Thiaw’s team have lost both matches, conceded too often and now have to play under the pressure of needing a convincing result. That can lead to urgency, but also impatience.

Iraq are weaker on paper, yet the +2 line offers useful protection. They can defend compactly, slow the rhythm and look for moments through set pieces or direct play. Senegal may still win, but a comfortable three-goal margin is not the most natural base scenario. If Iraq avoid conceding early, this match can become tense enough for the underdog to stay inside the number.

Why Iraq Can Stay Inside the Handicap

• Senegal have more quality, but their defensive record is worrying after six goals conceded in two matches. Their aggressive approach can leave space for Iraq’s rare but dangerous counters.

• Iraq’s first two matches came against elite attacks. Norway and France both play at a higher speed than Senegal, so Arnold’s side may find this matchup more manageable defensively.

• Iraq +2 Asian Handicap fits a game where Senegal need the win but not necessarily a blowout. A one-goal Iraq defeat wins the bet, while a two-goal loss returns the stake.

Match Prediction: Iraq +2 Asian Handicap 1.71