Alaves vs Villarreal Match Prediction

Alaves vs Villarreal. La Liga 2026/27 Matchday 3. August 28, 2026 | Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz | 21:30.

Matchday 3 brings together two teams that have started the season with more attacking ambition than many expected. Alaves under Quique Sanchez Flores continue to rely on compact defending, physical football and quick transitions, but they have already shown they can produce goals at home. Villarreal, meanwhile, are trying to dominate more often under Inigo Perez, pushing their lines high and committing plenty of players forward. That combination of styles could easily move this game away from a cautious scenario, especially if Alaves once again make good use of set pieces and transitions while Villarreal continue to leave space after their own attacks. Over 2.5 Goals at 1.82 looks like a reasonable way to approach the matchup.

Alaves

Quique Sanchez Flores has quickly given Alaves a more pragmatic and disciplined structure. Without the ball, the team can drop into a back five, close central spaces and avoid overcomplicating the first pass after winning possession. Their attacking game relies heavily on wide deliveries, set pieces and the ability of the forwards to compete for second balls. The opening round showed that Alaves are capable of more than simply sitting deep. After Getafe were reduced to ten men, the hosts gradually increased the pressure and eventually turned the match into a convincing 3-0 win. Nahuel Tenaglia opened the scoring, while substitute Mariano Diaz scored once and contributed to the other two attacking sequences.

The second game required a very different response. Rayo Vallecano had more of the initiative and took the lead after halftime, but Alaves stayed in the match. Mariano again made an impact from the bench, capitalizing on an Andrei Ratiu mistake in the 83rd minute to make it 1-1. That gives Sanchez Flores' side four points and four goals from two rounds, while Mariano has already scored twice despite being used primarily as a late-game weapon.

Antonio Sivera remains the first-choice goalkeeper. Nahuel Tenaglia, Facundo Garces, Nicolas Valentini and young Ville Koski provide options across the back line, while Antonio Blanco, Denis Suarez, Ander Guevara and Carles Alena offer experience and technical quality in midfield. Up front, Mariano, Toni Martinez and Lucas Boye compete for minutes, although Boye's adductor issue remains something to monitor. The variety of forward profiles gives Alaves more ways to change the game than they had last season.

Recent Results:

Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alaves (August 20, 2026)
Alaves 3-0 Getafe (August 15, 2026)

Villarreal

Inigo Perez is only beginning his work with Villarreal, but the direction is already clear. He wants aggression both with and without the ball, a high defensive line and a constant desire to hurt the opponent rather than simply control possession. The attacking potential is obvious, although the structure after turnovers is still inconsistent.

Both opening matches finished 2-2. Villarreal recovered from two goals down against Racing Santander, while they also came away from the Metropolitano with a draw against Atletico Madrid. In that second game, Gerard Moreno and Georges Mikautadze scored, while Villarreal's pace repeatedly forced Atletico to defend while facing their own goal. Gerard later spoke positively about how quickly the squad has adapted to Perez's ideas, and the attacking confidence is already visible.

Luiz Junior remains the first-choice goalkeeper, with Santiago Mourino, Juan Foyth, Renato Veiga and Carlos Romero among the main defensive options. Pape Gueye adds power and running in midfield, while Santi Comesana and highly rated Carlos Masia provide further choices. Nicolas Pepe and Alberto Moleiro are dangerous from wide areas, and the attacking depth is especially strong with Ayoze Perez, Mikautadze and Gerard Moreno available centrally. Gerard had been managing a minor overload before the Atletico game, while Sergi Cardona worked individually and Willy Kambwala remained outside the squad amid transfer uncertainty. Even with those issues, Villarreal possess enough quality to keep creating chances throughout the game.

Recent Results:

Atletico Madrid 2-2 Villarreal (August 23, 2026)
Racing Santander 2-2 Villarreal (August 16, 2026)

Previous Meetings

This matchup has not always been high-scoring, especially at Mendizorrotza. The last two meetings there ended 1-1 and 1-0. However, this version of Villarreal is playing with far more aggression, and their opening two games have already produced eight total goals.

The January meeting also supports the goals angle, with Villarreal winning 3-1. The visitors now have even greater depth in attack, while Alaves have already scored four times in two matches, so relying only on the historically cautious nature of this fixture looks risky.

Prediction

The tactical contrast is the most interesting part of this game. Alaves will not try to match Villarreal for possession, but they do not need to. Sanchez Flores' side are comfortable moving the ball forward quickly, using physically strong forwards and putting pressure on second balls and set pieces. Mariano has already scored twice from the bench, while the 3-0 home win over Getafe showed Alaves can continue attacking once they gain momentum.

Villarreal under Inigo Perez have almost pushed their own matches toward open endings. They have scored four and conceded four in two rounds, with both games finishing 2-2. Mikautadze, Ayoze, Pepe, Moleiro and Gerard Moreno give the visitors too many attacking options to expect a purely conservative approach.

At the same time, Villarreal's high line leaves opportunities for the opponent. That is where Alaves can contribute to the total. Three goals are needed for the bet to land, and scorelines such as 1-2 or 2-1 look realistic given the way both teams have started the season. Over 2.5 Goals at 1.82 carries some risk, but the price reflects it.

Three Paths Toward Three Goals

- Villarreal have opened the season with two identical 2-2 draws. They have scored four and conceded four, while Perez's new system deliberately encourages more aggression and a higher team shape.

- Alaves are not playing like a purely defensive side either. They have scored four goals in their first two matches, with Mariano already contributing twice from the bench. Toni Martinez and the potential return of Boye also allow Sanchez Flores to change the type of central striker during the game.

- Villarreal's attacking quality is not yet matched by defensive reliability. Atletico found space down the flanks, and Carlos Romero had difficulties in physical duels. Alaves can exploit exactly those areas with direct deliveries and pressure on second balls.

Match Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.82.