Free betting strategy tester versus bet365 odds

MakeYourStats features and data sources

MakeYourStats is a football stats website, and the MakeYourStats app works on Android and iPhone. A small company from Romania, ZAVU RO SRL, runs both.

For each match the site shows how both teams played recently: home wins, goals, over 2.5 goals, BTTS (both teams to score), corners, cards and xG. xG, or expected goals, shows how many goals a team's chances were worth.

The main tool is the football stats filter. It is a rule you write yourself, for example: “the home team won at least 4 of its last 5 home games”. The site then finds every match that fits.

Then comes the backtest. You pick a filter and a period, and the site places a pretend bet of one unit on every match that fits. A unit is a fixed stake, the same each time. At the end you see the profit or loss.

The odds come from bet365. Odds of 2.00 pay back double the stake.

Free backtests without MakeYourStats PRO

The pricing page lists backtesting as a PRO feature, so we expected to pay. We did not have to. On a free account we built five filters, ran eight backtests and downloaded each result to Excel, one row per match.

MakeYourStats PRO adds betting alerts for new matches, more stats and the full match lists. Free users see only three matches in each list on the Quick stats page.

The “Earn PRO” page also gives four free days of PRO for finishing some tasks in the app. After that come three more days and a 50% discount.

A year of home bets on MakeYourStats

We started with the simplest bet there is: the home team to win.

The first filter took nearly every home team for one year, from 20 October 2025 to 20 October 2026. It left out only teams with no home wins and teams that won more than 70% of their recent home games.

The bets with odds lost 5,377 units out of 58,823 staked, or 9.14%. This percentage is called yield.

Why so much? Every bookmaker keeps a small cut inside its odds. It is called the bookmaker margin. Bet on nearly everything and you lose about that cut. Here the loss came to 9.14%.

The second filter took home teams in strong form, with at least 70% wins in recent home games, such as 4 of the last 5. It lost 7.35% of the money staked. A third filter kept only teams from 80% to 100% and lost 7.35% as well.

Perfect home form and small samples

We sorted all home teams by their recent home form and checked each group in the Excel files. The “Won” column is the strike rate, the share of bets that won.

“Odds expected” in the table shows how often a team should win at its odds. Odds of 2.00 expect a win in half the games.

Groups like 1 of 4 or 2 of 3, from teams with fewer home games, are left out of the table.

The 100% group mixes teams with one home game and teams with five. It won 52.5% of the time. Teams with 4 wins out of 5 won 55.0%.

The likely cause is sample size, the number of games behind a figure. The site turns a single game into a “100%” or “0%” figure. The match page for Lille against Galatasaray in the Champions League shows it.

A “100%” label can hide a second problem. The free Quick stats page listed Montevideo City Torque as a “100%” home team. Their perfect record came from five league games at home. This match was a continental cup game against Atlético Mineiro from Brazil, and their odds of 3.20 gave them only about a 1 in 3 chance.

A “100%” home record won less often than 4 wins out of 5.

Form is already in the odds

In every group, teams won 2.8 to 3.8 percentage points less often than their odds expected.

Better form did bring more wins. But bookmakers look at the same recent form before they set a price, so those teams got lower odds and the profit stayed below zero. A value bet is a bet where the odds pay more than the real chance of winning is worth. No form group reached that.

“100%” teams at odds above 3.50 did worst. There were 1,317 of these bets, and they lost 25% of the money staked. “100%” teams at odds of 2.00 or less lost 2.85%.

Neither home-win filter had a single profitable month in the thirteen, counting the part-months of October 2025 and October 2026. October 2025 came closest, at −0.50% for the strong-form filter.

The green leagues button in MakeYourStats

Every backtest has a league tab, sorted from the best yield to the worst. Our strong-form test put a Romanian women's league, Liga 2 Feminin, at the top with +366.5%. It had seven bets.

Above the list sits a green button, “Add green leagues to filter”. It replaces the leagues in your filter with every league that made a profit. A pop-up warns that you cannot undo this.

We tested the button with the Excel file. First we split the year into two halves at 20 April 2026.

In the first half, 309 leagues out of 855 made a profit. Together they returned +17.49% on 3,923 bets. Half of these leagues had eight bets or fewer.

In the second half, the same 309 leagues lost 7.46%. The other leagues lost 7.53%.

309 green leagues made +17.49%, then lost 7.46% on the next matches.

Leagues with 20 or more bets did no better. They went from +11.2% to −9.17%.

This is called overfitting. A rule is shaped to fit old results, and on new matches it works no better than any other rule.

Shared community strategies on new matches

On the Community filters page, users share their own filters. You can copy any of them to your account.

The top three show +69.43%, +69.13% and +68.83%. Each one runs on its own chosen list of leagues: 174, 75 and 133.

We copied the first one. Its author tested it from July 2024 to July 2025. It waits for a match that is 0-0 at around minute 32, with some corners and shots on target, and bets on a goal before half-time. In our year it found 199 matches, and a goal came before half-time in 81 of them. We priced each bet at the live odds the filter stored in the Excel file, and the result was −10.68%.

We asked the page for strategies with a yield of zero or less. The lowest results it showed were −0.03% and −0.02%.

With almost no losing strategies on the page, a reader sees mainly the ones that did well. This is called survivorship bias: you only see the strategies that survived.

The top shared strategy showed +69%. On our year it lost 10.68%.

Four mistakes in MakeYourStats numbers

We checked the results on the site against the Excel files and found four problems.

The total includes games without odds. Our first test showed 70,921 games, and 12,098 of them had no bet365 odds. These games are left out of the profit but still count in the total and in the win rate. Many were Russian, Belarusian, youth and friendly matches. The real count appears in a small tooltip next to the average odds.

One day is counted twice. Every match on 20 April 2026 appears two times in the file. It changes the yield by only 0.03 points.

Months are in the wrong order. The monthly chart sorts months as text, so it starts with January 2026, puts October 2026 between October and November 2025, and ends with December 2025. Its money line does not follow real time.

Odds change between runs. We ran two copies of our 80–100% home form filter a few hours apart and got −1,492.43 and −1,492.48 units. Six matches had new odds. One of them, Panathinaikos against OFI, went from 1.38 to 1.30.

The Excel file lets you find each of these yourself.

How to backtest a betting strategy

To run our 80–100% test, the last two rows of the table together, you need only a free account with an email address.

1. Open Fixtures and click Filters / Alerts.
2. On the General tab, set Win (H) from 80% to 100% and click Save. This keeps home teams that won at least 80% of their recent home games.
3. Go to Backtesting and click "+ Backtest".
4. Pick your filter, choose “Last year” and set the outcome to “Home win”.
5. After a few minutes the status turns to Done. Click Download.

In the file, count the games with no odds. Then compare how often the teams won with how often their odds expected them to win. In our test, no group of teams beat its odds.

MakeYourStats price and refunds

PRO costs €16.90 a month. Three months cost €44.90, six months €79.90, and a year €119.90, which is €9.99 a month.

The price page says “cancel anytime”. The terms add two rules. Every plan renews on its own until you cancel it. The company gives no refunds for any payment.

If you try PRO for one month, turn off renewal on the day you pay.

Use MakeYourStats to test your own idea

MakeYourStats works best for a bettor who already has a betting strategy and wants to see last year's result. The backtest is free, the database is large, and the Excel file lists every match.

The league tab, the green leagues button and the shared strategies all show results from the past. We checked them on matches outside the period they were picked from, and all of them lost money.

Betaminic does a similar job with Pinnacle closing odds, and its margin is smaller, so the same rule can look better there. Other tools of this kind are on our betting software page. If your rule survives the test, our Kelly criterion guide shows how much of your bankroll, the money you keep for betting, to stake on it. The Staking Machine then compares staking plans on your own bet history.