AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction

Serie A 2026/27, Matchday 9
AC Milan vs Bologna
October 28, 2026. 19:45.
San Siro, Milan.

Milan Remain Unbeaten and Keep Closing on the Leaders, but Bologna Arrive With Fresh Confidence After Winning in Cagliari.

Milan continue their unbeaten Serie A campaign and are gradually moving closer to the leading group. Ruben Amorim's side have won their last two league matches, while Christian Pulisic has once again become one of the key figures in attack. Bologna remain in mid-table but also arrive with renewed confidence after beating Cagliari away from home.

Consistency is still an issue for Raffaele Palladino's team, which conceded three goals against Inter between two successful road performances. The schedule could also shape the game, with Milan facing the derby against Inter only three days later. Amorim will need to manage workloads carefully, but neither side's recent tactical approach suggests they will simply abandon attacking football.

AC Milan

Milan are one of four Serie A teams still unbeaten this season. After eight rounds, Amorim's side sit fourth with 18 points and a 16-7 goal difference, having recorded five wins and three draws. They have taken seven points from their last three league games, beating Lecce 3-0, drawing 1-1 at Sassuolo and defeating Atalanta 3-2. The Atalanta match highlighted both Milan's attacking quality and their defensive vulnerability. Gonzalo Ramos, Adrien Rabiot and Mario Gila gave the Rossoneri a 3-0 lead by the 57th minute, only for Atalanta to score twice and force Mike Maignan into several important saves. Milan then lost 3-0 at Bournemouth in the Europa League, although Maignan's first-half red card heavily influenced the result. The response was immediate, with a controlled 2-0 win away to Udinese as Pulisic scored early from a Luka Modric assist before Omari Hutchinson secured the result after the break.

Amorim continues to search for the ideal balance between his preferred attacking principles and the characteristics of the current squad. Milan most often use a 3-4-2-1, but recent games have also featured 4-3-3 and 4-4-1-1 variations. Against Udinese, a back four allowed Pulisic to operate directly behind the centre-forward while Milan retained numerical control in midfield. Modric remains central to the structure because of his ability to dictate tempo, switch the point of attack and find runners behind defensive lines. The main weakness appears when Milan's wide players advance aggressively and possession is lost. Atalanta repeatedly found transition space after the Rossoneri established their three-goal lead. Amorim also wants an immediate counterpress after turnovers, but maintaining that intensity across a crowded week is demanding and may encourage some rotation before the derby.

Pulisic remains the leading attacking figure thanks to his speed, movement and ability to receive in dangerous spaces between defenders. His early strike at Udinese gave Milan immediate control of the game, while Ramos continues to provide physical presence, pressing and penalty-box threat after returning from muscular discomfort. Hutchinson has added another direct option after scoring his first goal for the club, while young Alphadjo Cisse gives the attack further pace. Modric, Ardon Jashari and Yunus Musah form the core of midfield, with Ruben Loftus-Cheek another option when Amorim wants greater physicality. Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlovic and Fikayo Tomori remain the main defensive choices, while young Sankhoun Diawara has been receiving more minutes on the left. Maignan is the first-choice goalkeeper. Matteo Gabbia is recovering from a hamstring injury, Alexis Saelemaekers remains out after ankle surgery, and Samuel Chukwueze has a thigh problem. Rabiot, Gila, Diego Moreira and Pietro Terracciano also missed the latest game, leaving several players' availability uncertain.

Recent results:

• Udinese 0-2 AC Milan

• Bournemouth 3-0 AC Milan, Europa League

• AC Milan 3-2 Atalanta

• Salzburg 0-4 AC Milan, Europa League

• Sassuolo 1-1 AC Milan

Bologna

Bologna have struggled for consistency under Palladino and sit 13th after eight rounds with eight points and an 8-10 goal difference. Their record stands at two wins, two draws and four defeats, although recent results suggest some progress. A 1-1 home draw with Torino was followed by a 2-1 away win over Lecce, where Riccardo Orsolini scored early before Jay Enem found the winner in the second half. Bologna then lost 3-1 at home to Inter despite Tommaso Pobega opening the scoring after ten minutes, as the visitors gradually took control. The response came on October 24 with a 2-0 win away to Cagliari. Nicolo Casale headed Bologna in front from a corner before Federico Bernardeschi converted a late penalty. That clean sheet was particularly important after several weeks of defensive inconsistency, although eight goals in eight league games still underline the limits of the attack.

Palladino generally prefers a 3-4-2-1 built around three centre-backs, aggressive wing-backs and fast progression once possession is recovered. Bologna try to create space between opposition defenders through movement from the two attacking midfielders and support from central players arriving late. Lewis Ferguson and Pobega are important because they can move the ball forward quickly and join attacks from deeper positions. Against Cagliari, the system helped Bologna take increasing control after a cautious first half. The problem is positional attack against compact opponents, where the Rossoblu can lack individual creativity and rely too heavily on crosses or second balls. Their advanced wing-backs also leave space behind them, an issue Inter repeatedly exploited after Bologna lost possession. Against Milan, Palladino will need to find a better balance between protecting those wide areas and still committing enough players forward to threaten on the break.

Jens Odgaard has become one of Bologna's most important attackers because of his ability to operate either as a striker or attacking midfielder and receive between the lines. Artem Dovbyk offers a more physical option and can occupy centre-backs directly. Bernardeschi and Nicolo Cambiaghi provide creativity and pace, with Bernardeschi capable of delivering the final pass and Cambiaghi threatening through runs behind the defence. Ferguson, Pobega and Nikola Moro carry most of the midfield responsibility, while Nadir Zortea and Juan Miranda provide width. Casale, Arthur Theate and Matteo Darmian are the main defensive options, with Lukasz Skorupski in goal. Injuries reduce Palladino's attacking depth. Orsolini is still recovering from a hamstring problem, Roberto Piccoli suffered a similar injury against Inter and is expected to miss several weeks, Emil Holm remains in rehabilitation, and Enem is dealing with an Achilles issue. Those absences could limit Bologna's ability to change the game from the bench.

Recent results:

• Cagliari 0-2 Bologna

• Bologna 1-3 Inter

• Lecce 1-2 Bologna

• Bologna 1-1 Torino

• Napoli 1-0 Bologna

Head-to-Head

Date	Match	Score
February 3, 2026	Bologna vs AC Milan	0-3
September 14, 2025	AC Milan vs Bologna	1-0
May 14, 2025	AC Milan vs Bologna, Coppa Italia	0-1
May 9, 2025	AC Milan vs Bologna	3-1
February 27, 2025	Bologna vs AC Milan	2-1

Milan have won three of the last five meetings, while Bologna have taken two. The most recent clash was particularly convincing, with the Rossoneri winning 3-0 away from home in February 2026. Their previous league meeting at San Siro ended 1-0, although Bologna had already shown they could frustrate Milan by winning the Coppa Italia final by the same score.

Three of those five meetings produced at least three goals, including Bologna's 2-1 win in February 2025, Milan's 3-1 response a few months later and the latest 3-0 result. The history therefore offers support for a higher-scoring scenario, even if the two 1-0 games also show how quickly this matchup can become tactical and cautious.

Milan's Attacking Movement Can Exploit Bologna's Wide Spaces

● Milan's strongest argument is the growing cohesion of their attack. They have scored 16 league goals, while recent performances against Atalanta and Udinese showed several different routes to goal. Pulisic can attack inside channels, Ramos provides a central reference point and Modric can change the direction of attacks before the opposition block has time to reset.

● That matters against Bologna because Palladino's wing-backs are encouraged to advance. When possession is lost, the spaces behind them can become difficult to protect, particularly if the outside centre-backs are dragged wide. Milan have enough speed to attack those areas immediately rather than allowing Bologna to reorganise.

● The hosts are not flawless defensively, however. Their collapse from 3-0 to 3-2 against Atalanta showed that concentration can disappear after gaining control, while an aggressive counterpress can leave open space if the first challenge is missed. Bologna do not create huge attacking volume, but Cambiaghi and Bernardeschi are capable of exploiting those situations.

● Set pieces may also matter. Casale scored from a corner against Cagliari, and Bologna have enough physical presence to threaten a Milan defence that has occasionally looked uncomfortable when forced to defend second balls around the box.

Rotation Before the Derby Could Open the Game

The calendar is another reason to consider goals. Milan face Inter only three days later, so Amorim may rotate or manage the minutes of several important players. Even small changes in midfield or defence can affect the timing of the press and the communication required to protect transition spaces.

Bologna also arrive with injuries, but their recent away performances have been encouraging. They beat Lecce and Cagliari, showing that Palladino's side can attack more efficiently when opponents leave room to counter rather than forcing them to break down a deep block.

Milan should still control more possession and create more chances, but an early home goal could actually make the game more open. Bologna would then have to advance their wing-backs and commit additional midfielders, creating further space for Pulisic and Ramos at the other end.

The main concern for the over is Bologna's limited scoring record and the absence of Orsolini and Piccoli. Still, Milan have enough attacking quality to contribute heavily to the total themselves, and Bologna's transition threat offers a realistic route to at least one goal.

Prediction

Milan enter as the stronger and more reliable side, with two consecutive Serie A victories and an unbeaten league record underlining their progress. Pulisic is in strong form, Ramos gives the attack a focal point and Modric remains capable of opening defensive structures with one pass. Bologna's 3-4-2-1 can become vulnerable when the wing-backs push high, and Milan should find several opportunities to attack the spaces left behind them, especially if Amorim's side establish the tempo early.

The risk is that Bologna's attacking injuries reduce their ability to contribute, while Milan may rotate before the derby and manage the second half more cautiously if they take the lead. Even so, both teams have shown defensive lapses when games become stretched, and three of the last five head-to-head meetings produced at least three goals. With Milan capable of scoring multiple times and Bologna dangerous in transition and from set pieces, over 2.5 goals looks worth backing.

Match Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.83.